Flawed Predictions and Planning Errors

Summary

This book contains the following two titles:

- The Planning Fallacy: The allure of optimism has been a driving force behind humanity’s greatest achievements. It propels innovation, inspires ambition, and fosters resilience in the face of adversity. Yet, this same optimism can lead us astray, particularly when it comes to planning and executing tasks. The belief that everything will unfold as envisioned, without significant setbacks or challenges, is an enticing illusion. This overconfidence, while comforting, often masks the reality of time and resource constraints, resulting in a phenomenon known as the planning fallacy.

- The Representativeness Heuristic: The representativeness heuristic is one of the most influential concepts in cognitive psychology, profoundly shaping the way individuals make judgments and decisions. First introduced by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, this heuristic explains how people often assess probabilities and likelihoods based on how closely an event or object resembles a prototype or existing mental model. While this cognitive shortcut can be useful in navigating a complex world, it also introduces biases that distort reasoning and lead to systematic errors.